When we plan, we think. But we have very little insight into how we think and how our systems of cognition impact our decisions. During an interactive planning session we interact with each other, we think, and we come to decisions. But how our brain actually works is not well understood by most of us. Gaining a better understanding of how our brain works can increase the value of our planning sessions.
Although much has been written on this subject, a book by Daniel Kahneman is particularly on point for improving interactive planning sessions. His book “Thinking Fast and Slow” reports the results of years of scientific research into how we think.
In his book, Kahneman divides our thinking into two systems: system one (fast) and system two (slow). System one is the intuitive, lightning quick thinking that answers the question: what’s 1 + 1? System one is the silent author of many of the choices we make, and we are not even aware that the bus is being driven or that system one is the driver. System two is the laborious uncomfortable thinking that is brought on by questions like: What’s 167 X 234? When you take a step back and consider these two ways of cognation, I’m sure you will be able to come up with examples from your own life where each system is engaged.
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One thing Kahneman teaches is that system one is not good at estimation or statistics. For instance, if you were asked:
- An individual is described as follows: “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.” Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?”
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If you are like most people, your system one informed you that Steve was a librarian. System one does not bother to consider that there are more than 20 male farmers for every male librarian in the United States.
System one is also very suggestible and susceptible to anchoring. Anchoring subconsciously sets a baseline value in our mind, and our system one will respond to a given question factoring the anchor value, regardless of the integrity of the anchoring value. One example used in the book is: If you are asked whether Gandhi was more than 114 years old when he died you will end up with a much higher estimate of his age at death than you would if the anchoring question refereed to death at 35.
Think about the implications of system one and anchoring in an interactive planning session. The first person to chime in with an estimated duration has anchored the group. Once anchoring has occurred, the only way out is to move to system two and analyze the estimated duration.
We are naturally resistant to entering system two because it is effortful and system two is naturally lazy.
The next time you attend a planning meeting, take a step back and see if you can recognize any of these cognitive dynamics at work, and let me know what you think. Next up in this series we will discuss the OODA loop and its impact on planning and scheduling.